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otoh, i do think your last 2 observations are also correct, and that "blessing" 1 or more payment solutions on platform / with Connect would help improve conversion for 3rd-party developers, possibly even on other retail / e-commerce sites.
an alternative way to think about this issues is this:
* do you believe that a payments system based on "social identity" (one where portable identity & friend lists exist & are available features) is superior to a normal payments system?
if you think it isn't, then your logic probably holds.
if you think it is, then it's likely that all the investment in features & support is worth the ROI.
thinking about Facebook as a social network with payment features is one perspective. another would be to think about Facebook as an identity & payments & applications platform with social networking features ;)
Thanks for the comment! I don't actually think a payments system based on social identity is necessarily superior. I think the best payment system is one where the person accepting payment has a high degree of confidence that the user is in fact authorized, where there's a low probability of repudiation, and where there's minimal friction. It's clear that Facebook has more "real" people than other social networks, there are still plenty of fake accounts.